NATO looks for allies to station military contingent in Central Asia

Source : StratRisks

Not much time is left until 2014, when the withdrawal of NATO anti-terrorism coalition troops from Afghanistan is expected to take place; however, it still remains unknown what type of military contingent will remain in Afghanistan and Central Asia thereafter and which countries of the region will be selected by the West for this purpose.

The fact that military contingents will remain not only in Afghanistan but also in the region is doubtless and is openly stated by officials. On Tuesday, the U.S. Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia Robert Blake said the fact of the coalition’s presence in Central Asia is unequivocal, adding that it is still not decided on what other transit points and bases will be maintained in the region.

Afghanistan is one of the main reasons why Central Asia is so interesting to the West, but other regional players such as China and Russia are also interested in close cooperation with the countries of the region.

Coalition military bases used to be located in the countries of the region, such as Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, but were later were closed down. These two countries and Tajikistan will most likely be the main choice for dislocations of Western troops in the region.

Turkmenistan, consistent with its policy of neutrality and the unwillingness of President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov to entice foreign policy vector to take sides will not host a military contingent. Kazakhstan may act as a transit country, but NATO’s close long-term mutually beneficial cooperation with Russia is unlikely to give it hope for more.

However, things are not so simple with the remaining three countries. In mid-April, the President of Uzbekistan visited Russia, and some progress was witnessed then in relations between the two countries after a long cooling period. It is unlikely that the Tashkent leadership would go for talks with Russia if it has plans of placing Western military facilities on its territory in the near term.

Kyrgyzstan, with the former military base and present transit center Manas operating on its territory which must cease operation in 2014 due to the expiration of the lease agreement, also is quickly building up a partnership with Russia.

This can be seen by the frequent meetings of officials of the two countries, as well as desire to integrate alongside of Russia in the Customs Union. Bishkek has repeatedly said it would not renew the Manas agreement, which is a kind of message to Russia, in which it expresses its commitment to further cooperation with Moscow. It would be extremely illogical now to close down one transit center that brings economic benefits to the country only to open another one.

The situation is somewhat different with Tajikistan: some cooling has been observed in relations with its closest neighbor (Russia) and there has been an improvement of relations with NATO. Despite membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the presence of the Russian military and a Russian fiber optic node, Tajikistan is increasingly moving closer to NATO.

Western officials are increasingly visiting the republic, cooperation is developing in all areas, including through participation in NATO’s various programs. For example, two U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretaries of State will visit Dushanbe this week. Dushanbe does not receive tangible investment from Russia, despite the presence of military bases on the country’s territory of the Republic nor political support.

Perhaps if it were not for Tajik labor migrants, the country would long ago have completely turned away from cooperation with Moscow.

Assessing the situation and necessity for the presence of coalition forces in the region after 2014, one can conclude that the most appropriate partner for NATO today is Tajikistan. However, over time it turned out that countries in the region are able to redirect the vector of foreign policy in a very short time, and since there is still time left until 2014, unambiguous predictions on this issue are meaningless.

N.Korea Builds Barricades on Border with South

Source : RIA Novosti

SEOUL, April 24 (RIA Novosti) - North Korea has started building anti-tank barricade lines near the border with the South, the Yonhap news agency said on Wednesday citing a Chinese TV channel.

China’s Beijing TV showed footage of North Korean servicemen building structures from logs, stones and concrete. The report said the barricades were possibly intended to hold South Korea’s tanks and other military vehicles in case of a war.

The report suggested that the country’s leadership might be preparing for a military conflict.

Tensions have risen sharply on the Korean Peninsula since December, when North Korea tested a long-range Taepodong 2 missile, and in February carried out its third nuclear test.

The UN responded with sanctions. The start of joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States last month further irritated the North, which threatened to carry out a nuclear attack on the US mainland, as well as on US forces in the region.

In recent weeks, North Korea recommended all foreigners on the peninsula to evacuate to avoid the threat of war.

Nuclear Weapon Use ‘Suicidal’ for N.Korea - Colin Powell

Source : RIA Novosti

MOSCOW, April 18 (RIA Novosti) - The North Korean regime would be committing suicide if it used nuclear weapons, former US Secretary of State Colin Powell said in Moscow on Thursday.

“Any use of such weapons - or if we think that those weapons are about to be used…the North Koreans will be held to account,” Powell said on the sidelines of the Russia Forum 2013, adding the United States has “the capacity to destroy that regime.”

The threat from Pyongyang should taken seriously, he said, but “we shouldn’t get hysterical” about it because “in my own judgment, I don’t think they yet have a nuclear weapon that is deliverable.”

“I hope sooner or later they will come to their senses,” he said. “The regime would be committing suicide if it used those weapons.”

Tensions have risen sharply on the Korean Peninsula since December, when North Korea tested a long-range Taepodong 2 missile, and in February carried out its third nuclear test.

The UN responded with sanctions. The start of joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States last month further irritated the North, which threatened to carry out a nuclear attack on the US mainland, as well as on US forces in the region.

North Korean EMP Attack 'Unstoppable'

Source : War and Conflict

If North Korea were to launch a preemptive nuclear attack on the United States, it could use a long-range missile to orbit a satellite over the South Pole, putting it in line to fly over Omaha, Neb., and explode it at a 300-mile altitude where U.S. Aegis anti- ballistic missile systems cannot reach, sources have told WND.

In addition, these sources say, there is no way to determine whether a missile is carrying a dummy or real nuclear warhead, obviating the need to shoot down any missile that is launched from North Korea, given the public warning by Pyongyang that it intends to launch a preemptive nuclear strike against the U.S.

The U.S. has positioned Aegis ships near North Korea and Japan6, but a political decision apparently has been made not to attempt to shoot it down if it is heading for open water.

Sources say, however, that a missile to be launched toward the U.S. would take a trajectory over the South Pole, and it is questionable whether the U.S. has Aegis assets anywhere along the southerly path such a missile would take.

In addition, the missile would need to be shot down almost after lift-off, since the missile would launch the satellite relatively quickly into an orbit of 300 miles, which was the altitude of its satellite launch last December.

North Korea, meanwhile, announced in a statement that it has drawn the “arrows” for “merciless retaliatory strikes” at the U.S. mainland, U.S. military bases in the Pacific and “all other bases where the U.S. imperialist aggression forces station.

“The powerful strike means of the revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] have been put in their places and the coordinates of targets put into the warheads,” a North Korean statement said. “Just pressing the button will be enough to turn the strongholds of the enemies into the sea of fire.”

Bolivia’s president says US planning coup in Venezuela

Via : Strategic-Culture.org

Bolivia’s President Evo Morales says the United States is planning to stage a coup in Venezuela, condemning Washington’s questioning of the Venezuelan presidential election results as interference.

In a press conference on Tuesday, the Bolivian president said that the US is getting ready for a coup d’état in Venezuela.

He also rejected the White House’s moral authority to question electoral results worldwide, after Washington demanded Caracas to hold a full vote recount.

“I am certain that behind those remarks, the United States is preparing a coup d’état in Venezuela,” said Morales.

“I would like to express that this is a flagrant US interference in Venezuela’s democracy, as neither that spokesperson nor the US government has moral authority to question electoral results in any Latin American country or around the world.”

Morales also confirmed that he would attend Nicolas Maduro’s inauguration ceremony next Friday as a sign of support to the president-elect.

Since the electoral authority declared Maduro the winner, the opposition has staged several violent protests, leaving at least seven people dead and over 60 others injured.

Defeated Venezuelan presidential candidate Henrique Capriles cancelled a planned protest march for Wednesday after Maduro vowed he would not allow the rally to go ahead.

Maduro won the Sunday’s presidential election by 50.8 percent of the votes against the opposition leader’s 49 percent.

On March 8, Maduro became Venezuela’s acting president, following the death of late President Hugo Chavez, who lost a two-year-long battle with cancer on March 5.

Maduro has promised to continue the socialist policies of the former leader.

Obama says DPRK has no nuclear missile capability

Source : Xinhua

WASHINGTON, April 16 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Barack Obama said on Tuesday that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea ( DPRK) does not have the ability to arm a ballistic missile with nuclear warhead.

In an interview with NBC, when asked if Pyongyang has "the ability to put a nuclear weapon on a ballistic missile?", Obama responded: "Based on our current intelligence assessments, we do not think that they have that capacity."

But he also stressed that Washington is preparing for "every contingency out there."

"That's why I've repositioned missile defense systems to guard against any miscalculation on their part," Obama said.

He warned that Pyongyang can make "more provocative moves over the next several weeks." But Obama said he was in the hope that " we can move into a different phase in which they try to work through diplomatically some of these issues."

On Thursday, U.S. Representative Doug Lamborn said at a hearing that intelligence indicated the DPRK may have acquired the capability to deliver a nuclear warhead with its ballistic missile.

"DIA assesses with moderate confidence the North currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles," Lamborn read from, according to him, an unclassified intelligence assessment by the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). " However, the reliability will be low."

However, in the same day, Pentagon spokesman George Little said that it would be inaccurate to suggest that the DPRK has fully demonstrated the capability to launch a nuclear-armed missile.

Tensions have been heightened on the Korean Peninsula since the DPRK conducted its third nuclear test on Feb. 12 in protest against joint military drills between the Republic of Korea and the United States.

The DPRK has declared "a state of war" with the South and threatened to launch a preemptive nuclear strike for self-defense, and urged all foreign organizations, companies and tourists in the South to evacuate in case of war, saying the DPRK "does not want to see foreigners in South Korea fall victim to the war" as the situation on the peninsula "is inching close to a thermonuclear war."

NK boosts warnings as it marks Kim ascension

Source  :  Shanghai Daily

NORTH Korea delivered a fresh round of rhetoric yesterday with claims it had "powerful striking means" on standby for a missile launch, while Seoul and Washington speculated that the country is preparing to test a medium-range missile during upcoming national celebrations.

On the streets of Pyongyang, meanwhile, North Koreans celebrated the anniversary of leader Kim Jong Un's appointment to the country's top party post - one in a slew of titles collected a year ago in the months after father Kim Jong Il's death.

In South Korea, the point person on relations with North Korea, Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae, urged Pyongyang to cool down, engage in talks and reverse its decision to suspend operation of a joint industrial park just north of the border. "We strongly urge North Korea not to exacerbate the crisis on the Korean peninsula," Ryoo said.

The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, a nonmilitary agency that deals with relations with South Korea, said its "striking means" have been "put on standby for a launch and the coordinates of targets put into the warheads." It didn't clarify further.

SK, allies brace for launch

Officials in Seoul and Washington say Pyongyang appears to be preparing to test-fire a medium-range missile designed to reach the US territory of Guam in the Pacific Ocean.

Such a launch would violate UN Security Council resolutions barring North Korea from nuclear and ballistic missile activity, and mark a major escalation in Pyongyang's standoff with neighboring nations and the US. North Korea already has been punished for launching a long-range rocket in December and conducting an underground nuclear test in February.

Analysts do not believe North Korea will stage an attack similar to the one that started the Korean War in 1950. But there are concerns that the animosity could spark a skirmish that could escalate.

"North Korea has been, with its bellicose rhetoric, with its actions ... skating very close to a dangerous line," US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said on Wednesday. "Their actions and their words have not helped defuse a combustible situation."

The missile that officials believe Pyongyang is readying has a range of 3,500 kilometers and is designed to reach US military installments in Guam and Japan, experts say.

Bracing for a launch that officials said could happen at any time, Seoul deployed three naval destroyers, an early warning aircraft and a land-based radar system, a Defense Ministry official said in Seoul. Japan deployed PAC-3 missile interceptors around Tokyo. US Secretary of State John Kerry goes to Seoul today for talks with South Korean officials

S. Korea to intercept DPRK missile if it strikes territory: defense ministry

Source  :  Xinhua

SEOUL, April 11 (Xinhua) -- South Korea's missile defense system may intercept missiles possibly launched by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) if they are to strike the South Korean territory, the defense ministry said Thursday. "We have Patriot missiles. The missiles cannot cover all the nationwide territory, but if (the DPRK's missiles) come within the area of our coverage, we can strike down (those missiles)," Kim Min- seok, spokesman at the Ministry of National Defense, said at a press briefing.

South Korea is currently operating the Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC)-2 missile defense program, which has the capability to shoot down missiles and aircrafts at the altitude of 30 kilometers.

"Our military is holding the full readiness posture on concerns that North Korea (DPRK)'s missiles can threaten the safety of our territory and nationals," Kim said.

Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se told lawmakers on Wednesday that the DPRK would highly likely test launch mid-range missiles "at any time from now on." Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin said on April 4 that Pyongyang moved intermediate-range missiles, estimated to be Musudan, to its east coast.

The "Musudan" missiles, which are estimated to have a range of about 3,500 kilometers and reach the U.S. military base in Guam, were believed to be mounted on mobile launchers known as the transporter-erector-launcher (TEL).

The missiles were feared to be fired off around April 15 when Pyongyang celebrates the birthday of Kim Il-sung, the DPRK's founder and the late grandfather of the current leader Kim Jung-un.

Regarding the possibility for the DPRK to launch several missiles from different sites, Kim said that "no one knows how many missiles and what kind of missiles North Korea will fire off among Scud, Nodong and Musudan."

According to government officials cited by Yonhap News Agency, the DPRK was repeatedly moving the relocated Musudan missiles in and out of the facilities that were concealing them in the shed. Around five TELs, estimated to be loaded with Scud and Nodong missiles, were moving from place to place in South Hamgyeong Province.

The Scud missiles are estimated to have a range of between 300 and 500 kilometers, with the range for Nodong missiles estimated at 1,300-1,500 kilometers.

"We cannot rule out the possibility for Scud and Nodong missiles to be launched instead of Musudan given the relocation of missiles," said an official cited by Yonhap.

US radar in place to counter NK threat

Source  :  thenews.com.pk

WASHINGTON: A powerful US military sea-based radar is now in place to detect any possible missile launches by North Korea, according to a senior US defense official.

"The SBX is in position," the defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AFP late Wednesday.

The official would not offer more details but confirmed the SBX, a floating X-band radar that resembles a giant golf ball, had reached a location at sea where it could track missiles fired by the Pyongyang regime.

US and South Korean forces remain on heightened alert amid expectations North Korea will launch a missile or multiple missiles before the April 15 celebrations for the birthday of the North's late founder, Kim Il-Sung.

The United States has already bolstered its missile defenses in the region to help protect allies South Korea and Japan as well as US bases in Guam.

Two US Arleigh-class destroyers have been sent to the western Pacific with anti- missile weaponry while ground-based THAAD interceptor batteries had been deployed to Guam, a US territory about 3,380 kilometers (2,100 miles) southeast of North Korea.

The US military also staged shows of force as part of drills with South Korea, with over-flights by B-52 and B-2 bombers as well as sophisticated F-22 fighter jets.

The floating X-band radar, which sits atop a platform similar to an oil rig, had been stationed at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii.

The SBX radar, which is 85 meters (280 feet) tall and operated by civilian contractors, is supposed to detect missile launches over a range of at least 2,000 kilometers. (AFP)

U.S. warns DPRK against additional nuke test

Source  :   Xinhua

WASHINGTON, April 8 (Xinhua) -- The United States on Monday warned the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) not to undertake another nuclear test or missile launch.

"Any future nuclear test or missile launch would be in direct violation of UN Security Council resolutions, and would lead to further pressure and isolation," State Department spokesman Patrick Ventrell said at a regular news briefing.

"So, we would strongly discourage against that course of action," he added, refusing to say what actions might be taken by Washington in the event of a fresh nuke test or missile launch by the DPRK.

Earlier in the day, South Korea's Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae told lawmakers that there were signs that the DPRK was preparing for its fourth nuke test. Later, the country's Defense Ministry denied such a saying.

Tensions have been running high on that peninsula since the DPRK conducted its third nuclear test on Feb. 12 in protest against joint military drills conducted by Seoul and Washington.

The DPRK has even declared "a state of war" with the South and threatened to launch a preemptive nuclear strike for self-defense, naming military bases in the U.S. territory of Guam and the U.S. state of Hawaii as possible targets.

US Delays Missile Test “to Avoid Misperception”

Source  :  RIA Novosti

MOSCOW, April 7 (RIA Novosti) - The United States has delayed an intercontinental ballistic missile test planned for next week, media reported.

The test of the Minuteman 3, scheduled to be carried out in California, was postponed, possibly until some time in May, out of concerns that North Korea might misinterpret it, the BBC reported Sunday citing a senior US defense official.

The United States would like to “avoid any misperception or miscalculation” that the test could cause, the unnamed official said as quoted by the British broadcaster.

North Korea reportedly moved two missiles capable of striking the US Pacific territory of Guam onto mobile launch pads Friday, and advised foreign embassies to consider pulling staff out of Pyongyang.

At a March plenary meeting of the North Korean Workers’ Party’s Central Committee, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said the country would adopt relevant laws to maintain its nuclear deterrence forces. He also said the country would simultaneously build up its nuclear forces and develop its economy.

On Wednesday, the North Korean army said it had received approval to launch a “merciless” attack on the United States, including possible nuclear strikes.

The statement followed a pledge by Pyongyang on Tuesday to restart operations at its Yongbyon nuclear complex, including a uranium enrichment plant and a reactor.

Tensions began to rise on the Korean Peninsula after international sanctions were imposed on North Korea in response to a long-range rocket launch in December, which world powers condemned as a ballistic missile test. North Korea responded by carrying out a third nuclear test in February, which was followed by more sanctions.

North Korea has threatened pre-emptive nuclear strikes against the US mainland and US military bases in the region.

Some of the threats came as US and South Korean forces carried out annual joint military drills, including near the maritime border between the two Koreas. The United States responded by deploying F-22 Raptor stealth fighters to the region.

The six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program involve North and South Koreas, the United States, China, Japan and Russia. The talks have been stalled since 2009.

North Korea Moves Second Missile to Coast: Report

Source  :   http://www.almanar.com

A report said on Friday that North Korea now moved two intermediate range missiles to its east coast and loaded them on mobile launchers.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency cited a top government official, who confirmed Pyongyang’s move.

"It has been confirmed that North Korea, early this week, transported two Musudan mid- range missiles by train to the east coast and loaded them on vehicles equipped with launch pads," the official told the agency.

The government official said the vehicles carrying the missiles had apparently been hidden in special underground facilities.

"The North is apparently intent on firing the missiles without prior warning," he added.

The Musudan has never been tested, but is believed to have a range of around 3,000 kilometers, which could theoretically be pushed to 4,000 with a light payload.

That would cover any target in South Korea and Japan, and possibly even reach US military bases located on the Pacific island of Guam.

South Korea’s Defense Ministry, which had confirmed the movement of one missile the day before, declined to comment on the report.

DPRK moves missile to east coast: S.Korean defense chief

Source  :  Xinhua

SEOUL, April 4 (Xinhua) -- South Korean defense minister said Thursday that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has moved an intermediate-range missile to its east coast for test- firing or military drill.

"It was not a KN-08 missile, but it can reach a significant distance," Kim Kwan-jin told lawmakers at a parliamentary defense committee meeting. "It cannot reach the U.S. mainland. The missile seemed to be moved for the test-firing or military drill purpose."

His comments came after Japan's Asahi newspaper said earlier that the U.S. spy satellite spotted the DPRK's freight train heading for its east coast. The train was loaded with a missile, estimated to be KN-08 that is believed to have a range of 10,000 kilometers and can strike the U.S. mainland according to the report.

According to South Korean officials cited by Yonhap News Agency, the missile was estimated to be a 'Musudan' missile that is projected to have a range of between 3,000 and 4,000 kilometers and can target the U.S. military base in Guam.

The officials said the DPRK will highly likely fire it off around the middle of April, when Pyongyang celebrates the birthday of Kil Il-sung, the founder of the DPRK and the late grandfather of Kim Jung-un.

The U.S. Defense Department said Wednesday that it will deploy a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System (THAAD), or a land- based ballistic missile system, to Guam as a precaution to strengthen the regional defense posture against the DPRK's ballistic missile threats.

Tensions have been running high in the Korean Peninsula since the DPRK conducted its third nuclear test on Feb. 12 in protest against the joint military drills between Seoul and Washington.

The DPRK declared that it entered "a state of war" with South Korea, saying that the state of neither peace nor war has ended in the Korean Peninsula. It has also threatened to launch a preemptive nuclear strike for self-defense, mentioning military bases in the U.S. territory of Guam and the U.S. state of Hawaii as possible targets.

N Korea Army has final approval for nuclear attack on US

Source  : Islamic Invitation Turkey

The North Korean Army says it has received final approval for a nuclear attack on the United States in response to Washington’s threats and its planned deployment of an advanced ballistic missile system to the Pacific island of Guam.

The General Staff of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) said in a statement issued Thursday that the threats by the US would be “smashed by… cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike means.”

“The merciless operation of (our) revolutionary armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and ratified,” said the statement published by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

“The US had better ponder over the prevailing grave situation,” it added.

“In view of this situation, the KPA General Staff in charge of all operations will take powerful practical military counteractions in succession,” the statement said.

War of words escalated between Washington and Pyongyang after the participation of nuclear-capable US B-52s and B-2 stealth bombers in ongoing joint military drills with South Korea.

On March 11, Seoul and Washington launched their annual joint military maneuvers near the Korean Peninsula despite warnings from Pyongyang. The drills involved 10,000 South Korean soldiers and about 3,000 US troops.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon said on Wednesday that Washington would deploy the ballistic Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System (THAAD) to Guam in the coming weeks.

The US has also sent two Aegis anti-missile destroyers to the western Pacific to intercept any strike against its soil.

“They (the McCain and the Decatur) will be poised to respond to any missile threats to our allies or our territory,” Pentagon spokesman George Little said on Tuesday.

Last week, North Korea said that its military should be prepared to attack “all US military bases in the Asia-Pacific region, including the US mainland, Hawaii, and Guam” as well as South Korea.

The announcement came days after South Korea and the US signed a new military pact in response to what they called even low-level provocations by Pyongyang.

DPRK announces to resort to counteractions against United States

Source  :  Xinhua

PYONGYANG, April 4 (Xinhua) -- The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) on Thursday said it would "take powerful practical military counteractions" against the United States following the latter's provocative actions in the past days, reported KCNA, the DPRK's official news agency.

KCNA on Thursday ran the full text of a statement issued by the spokesman for DPRK's General Staff of the Korean People's Army ( KPA) in charge of all operations, which said the KPA Supreme Command had approved the decision.

"Days and months have passed on this land amid the constant danger of war but never had the whole Korean Peninsula been exposed to such danger of a nuclear war as today," said the statement, pledging that the DPRK's army and people "are all out" to defend the sovereignty of DPRK and to "prevent a nuclear war of the U.S."

South Korea warns of 'military action' to protect citizens

Source  : www.hurriyetdailynews.com

South Korea's defence ministry said Wednesday it had contingency plans, including possible military action, to ensure the safety of its citizens working in a joint industrial zone in North Korea.

"We have prepared a contingency plan, including possible military action, in case of a serious situation," Defence Minister Kim Kwan-Jin told ruling party MPs in a meeting.

"We should try to prevent the situation from going to the worst," Kim added.

North Korea blocked South Korean access to the Seoul- funded Kaesong joint industrial zone on Wednesday, but said it would allow the 861 South Koreans currently there to leave.

As of 2:00 pm (0500 GMT) only nine had crossed back over the border into South Korea.

The South's Unification Ministry said many had voluntarily opted to stay in Kaesong to ensure the smooth operation of their companies there.

North Korea blocks access to key industrial zone

North Korea blocked South Korean entry to a key joint industrial zone Wednesday, matching its angry rhetoric with action as Washington condemned Pyongyang's "dangerous, reckless" behaviour.

Any move on the Seoul-funded Kaesong complex -- established in 2004 and a crucial source of hard currency for North Korea -- carries enormous significance and the potential to send tensions soaring.

Neither of the Koreas has allowed previous crises to significantly affect Kaesong, the only surviving example of inter-Korean cooperation and seen as a bellwether for the stability of the Korean peninsula.